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Details Coming Soon...
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On April 7, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) posted a rare spike to 60, a level seen as a barometer of extreme market fear and uncertainty. According to Dan Tapiero, CEO of 10Tfund, the VIX has hit 60 only five times in the last 35 years, and data suggests a rebound for risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) in 6 to 12 months.
The VIX, which is widely considered a "fear gauge," reflects investor expectations of market turbulence based on S&P 500 options trading. As illustrated in the chart, extreme spikes were seen in 2008 and 2020, typically coinciding with market bottoms, where panic-driven sellers paved the way for generational market entries.
In light of that, Tapiero argued that the current spike is no different, with the worst of market fears likely "priced in," setting the stage for a positive future. Tapiero said that “odds favor better future.”
Likewise, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), supported Tapiero’s claim and said that tech stocks are at their most oversold since the COVID-19 crash, with over 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks posting a 14-day RSI below 30. Such a market signal has occurred only during major crises like the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Bittel explained that after the VIX touched 60 last week, it implied peak uncertainty, which breeds fear in investors’ minds. Briefly touching on the US Investors Intelligence Survey, Bittel compared the current bullish sentiment of 23.6% to the lowest reading since December 2008.
Additionally, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey respondents are currently 62% bearish, reflecting the highest bearish reading since March 2009. Bittel said,
“In other words, we’re back at the same levels of fear that marked the bottom of the equity market after the Global Financial Crisis.”
This widespread fear, alongside a rare VIX spike, sets up for market entries in assets like Bitcoin, as the recovery of market liquidity will inevitably flow back into risk-on assets.
Related: Saylor, ETF investors’ ‘stronger hands’ help stabilize Bitcoin — Analyst
While macroeconomic experts highlighted the possibility of a bullish outcome for risk assets, markets analyst Tony Severino suggested that the Bitcoin/VIX ratio might also lead to a bear market. In a recent X post, Severino predicted that Bitcoin could have already peaked this cycle, but remained open about a possible change in opinion by the end of April.
As illustrated in the chart, Severino noted a sell signal at the beginning of January. The analyst used the Elliott Wave theory model to pinpoint the current bearish conditions and said that it is still early to say that Bitcoin will turn bullish based on the VIX correlation.
Related: Bitcoin price volatility 'imminent' as speculators move 170K BTC — CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The US Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell has developed a reputation for dragging its feet on implementing important policy changes. However, a top central banker has assured that the Fed is “absolutely” ready to do whatever it takes to avoid a financial crisis, whether triggered by the US-led trade war or other adverse developments.
Although the long-awaited “Fed pivot” could still be months away, policymakers appear poised to gradually ease financial conditions, beginning last month when they reduced the redemption cap on Treasurys by 80%.
Fed policy exerts a gravitational pull on global markets through US dollar liquidity, which has a direct impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency markets. In fact, the Fed’s impact on crypto has only grown since the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Bitcoin has been highly correlated with liquidity — a fact that was reinforced by a 2024 academic paper by Kingston University of London.
This week’s Crypto Biz newsletter highlights remarks from a senior central bank official and covers major developments in the Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) market and the Bitcoin mining sector.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the central bank “would absolutely be prepared” to backstop markets if economic and financial conditions deteriorated rapidly.
Collins was specifically referring to potential liquidity issues or other disruptions that could hinder normal market functioning.
Currently, however, Collins noted that the central bank is “not seeing liquidity concerns.” Should that outlook shift, she emphasized that the Fed has “tools to address concerns about markets functioning or liquidity.”
Collins is a voting member of this year’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rates.
Investors expect the FOMC to refrain from cutting interest rates at its forthcoming meeting in May, based on Fed Fund Futures prices. However, the likelihood of a June rate cut has risen to 67.5%.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has green-lighted options trading for several spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds, an important milestone in ETH’s quest to attract more institutional capital.
According to an April 9 announcement, the approvals were granted to BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust, Bitwise’s Ethereum ETF (ETHW), Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund (FETH), and Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH).
Options give ETF investors the ability to hedge against a decline in assets, potentially making the funds more attractive to investors.
The options trading approval is also seen as an important step in the SEC’s deliberations around staking services on ETH ETFs. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, the SEC may be on track to approve staking as early as May.
As the US SEC continues to deliberate about crypto staking services, Canadian regulators have approved another suite of crypto staking ETFs, this time for Solana (SOL).
This week, asset managers 3iQ, Purpose, Evolve, and CI received approvals from the Ontario Securities Commission to offer staked Solana ETFs. The 3iQ fund selected blockchain infrastructure provider Figment as its primary staking provider.
According to 3iQ’s website, its Solana Staking ETF will offer yields of between 6% and 8%.
The Toronto-based 3iQ launched a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF in 2021, some three years before similar funds were approved in the United States.
Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer is expanding its self-mining capacity and pouring more resources into the United States amid fears that the US-led trade war will rattle global supply chains and upend its hardware business.
According to an April 15 report by Bloomberg, Bitdeer is prioritizing BTC mining due to declining demand for its mining rigs.
As the broader industry grapples with the potential impact of tariffs, “Our plan going forward is to prioritize our own self-mining,” Bitdeer executive Jeff LaBerge told Bloomberg.
On the topic of US expansion, LaBerge said, “This is something we’ve been planning for a long time.”
US President Donald Trump’s sons, Eric and Don Jr, are going all-in on Bitcoin mining after backing a new venture with Hut 8. This follows a renewed commitment by the Trump administration to promote “made in America” Bitcoin.
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TRUMP tokenholders face steep losses as the first vesting unlock goes live on April 18, releasing 40 million tokens, worth roughly $309 million, into circulation at a 90% discount from its peak.
The unlocked tokens account for 20% of the current circulating supply and could introduce fresh volatility as a previously illiquid portion of the supply hits the market. According to CoinGecko, the TRUMP token price has fluctuated between $7.46 and $7.83 in the past 24 hours.
April 18 marks the first unlock event for the TRUMP token, with steady, smaller unlocks following from that date.
The TRUMP token is down 89.5% from its all-time high of $73.43 recorded on Jan. 19, just two days after launching ahead of US President Donald Trump's inauguration. The token's value collapsed in the weeks following its debut, with over 800,000 wallets suffering a total of $2 billion in losses, according to estimates from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis
Gains or losses are only realized upon sale, meaning holders won’t incur actual losses unless they choose to sell their tokens. According to the token’s website, the unlocked tokens will belong to the “Creators and CIC Digital LLC.”
Related: Donald Trump’s memecoin generated $350M for creators: Report
According to the TRUMP token’s website, two organizations affiliated with Trump's business umbrella own 80% of the token supply: CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC.
A report from MarketWatch notes that CIC Digital, an affiliate of The Trump Organization, was placed in a trust by the time of Trump’s 2024 financial disclosures to the US Federal Election Commission. CIC Digital had previously been linked to Trump’s non-fungible token collections.
Related: What is TRUMP? Donald Trump’s billion-dollar memecoin
Fight Fight Fight LLC is another Trump-affiliated business. It is co-owned by CIC Digital and another company, Celebration Cards LLC, which was formed in Wyoming by Andrew Pierce. Fight Fight Fight LLC is synonymous with the Trump slogan “Fight Fight Fight,” which he shouted into a camera during an assassination attempt during a campaign rally.
The April 18 unlock represents a “cliff” — a large, one-time release of tokens. While there are other cliff unlocks ahead, many tokens will be released at a steadier pace. For example, between April 19 and 21, around 493,000 tokens will unlock daily, according to DropsTab.
Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions